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Posts from the ‘government’ Category

Apr 18

receipts_calculator_pen
7 Comments

Revenge of the bottom-scourers

The traditional shoe-making industry deserves to be remembered for its multiplicity of esoteric trades and titles. Whilst the shoe-maker himself might be known as a “cobbler”, a “cordwainer” or a “snob”, his employees ran the gamut from “last-maker”, “drum-man”, “finisher” and “knot-tier” to “press-man”, “skiver”, “sorter”, “tabler” and “toggler”. The most intriguing job title of the lot, though, surely has to be “bottom-scourer”. Though long obsolete in the shoe trade, perhaps the term could be resurrected to describe the citizens of a flat-lining economy? If so, we’re all bottom-scourers now. Read more

Apr 8

The Debt Noose
1 Comment

The Japanese gamble – rising sun or sunset strip?

If you’re familiar with the thesis set out in Perfect Storm, you’ll appreciate two things about our approach to economics. First, there has been an ever-widening divergence between the “real” (energy-based) economy and the “financial” economy of money and debt. Second, the unavoidable reconciliation of the real and the financial economies must involve the degradation of the value of money as an energy claim (and of debt as a future energy claim). Seen through this analytical prism – which must lead us to expect both money-printing and the deliberate stoking-up of inflation – Japan’s new economic strategy looks ultra high-risk (well, that’s a polite way of putting it). Read more

Mar 21

crossroads_sign_1_f1
14 Comments

Stimulus and risk – why the Keynesian borrowers are wrong

I’ve been pretty critical about the government’s economic policy, but nothing that George Osborne or his colleagues have done can compare for sheer irresponsibility with Labour’s siren calls for even more borrowing. The Keynesian prescription is mistaken (and highly dangerous) for three main reasons, which we can categorise as ‘experience’, ‘logic’ and ‘risk’. Read more

Mar 20

stacked_pound_coins
29 Comments

The budget – too little too…..

Today’s budget confirms, as I’ve been saying all along, that the British economy is far weaker than most commentators have been prepared to accept. As well as a further sharp downwards revision to growth expectations, debt projections have risen again. This budget surely confirms, were confirmation needed, that spending at (or anywhere near) current levels is simply unaffordable.  Read more

Mar 19

row_of_houses
6 Comments

The budget – smoke, mirrors and plus ça change

How do you start a budget speech? Well, “stop me if you’ve heard this one before” would be appropriate, because, to quote Yogi Berra, this budget is likely to be a case of “déjà vu all over again”. The economy will, yet again, have confounded the serial optimists at the OBR. The deficit reduction plan will…er, yet again…have gone further adrift of the government’s plan.  The debt target will – well, “yet again” – have slipped by another year. Read more

Mar 1

chess_white_king_f1
9 Comments

Whither the Conservatives? – When continuity politics is simply not enough

It is axiomatic that one should not draw too many conclusions from by-elections, where voters know that they can register a protest without affecting the national government. Sobriety (or is it just a sense of depressed resignation?) tends to reappear at the next general election. This said, the result delivered by the voters of Eastleigh should not be treated in the usual dismissive way. This result does tell us quite a lot, especially about the plight of the Conservatives. Read more

Feb 14

tpsi009_castle_ruins_dawn
19 Comments

The menace of the Vampire Squid

Of all the pejorative terms that have been applied to the banking industry, “vampire squid” has to be my favourite. This term seems uniquely expressive, describing a malign living organism that extends its tentacles into all of the crevices of the host system whilst draining that system of resources. Read more

Jan 11

tulips
21 Comments

Don’t they get it?

A recurrent theme for me this year is likely to be the disconnect between government policy and economic reality, a disconnect evident in the US, in Britain and in Europe. Progress cannot be achieved unless facts are faced, and voters are told the truth. Read more

Dec 20

pot_kettle_f1
14 Comments

The economy at the cliff-edge – our new report

Regular readers will know that I’ve been working on a major report looking at the economic outlook in the context of surplus energy, globalisation and the fall-out from the thirty-year ‘credit super-cycle’. Entitled Perfect Storm – energy, finance and the end of growth, this report is now complete, and will be published in January. Read more

Dec 5

Divide and prosper
44 Comments

A real Autumn Statement, part 1 – lemmings in denial

As things stand, Britain is going bust.

This was the first message that George Osborne didn’t – couldn’t – deliver today. The second, equally-undeliverable verity was that most of Britain’s problems have been self-inflicted. Read more

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